TREB RELEASING 2019 MARKET OUTLOOK

TORONTO, February 6, 2019 

This year's Market Year in Review and Outlook report follows a volatile year for the housing market in 2018.  Moderate improvement in terms of sales and average selling price is expected for 2019.

"Although we won't experience record levels, we do expect to see a better year in 2019 for sales and selling prices reported by GTA REALTORS® through TREB's MLS® System. Many buyers who moved to the sidelines over the past year due to various government policies, including the OSFI-mandated mortgage stress test, have re-evaluated their positioning in the marketplace vis-à-vis home type, location and price point.  It makes sense that Ipsos, in its Home Buyers Survey conducted for TREB, found that the share of intending home buyers has increased," said Mr. Bhaura.

"Even though we're seeing positive government action on a number of key housing files, one area that needs to be revisited is the imposition of the OSFI-mandated two percentage point mortgage stress test. While we saw buyers return to the market in the second half of 2018, we have to have an honest discussion on whether or not today's home buyers are being stress tested against rates that are realistic. Home sales in the GTA, and Canada more broadly, play a huge role in economic growth, job creation and government revenues every year. Looking through this lens, policymakers need to be aware of unintended consequences the stress test could have on the housing market and broader economy," said John DiMichele, TREB CEO.

"Despite some uncertainty regarding economic growth over the next year, many traditional housing market drivers remain in place. The GTA population will continue to grow over the next year, as people are attracted to the GTA by the region's diversity of job opportunities. Unemployment is expected to remain very low and home buyers are expected to benefit from lower fixed mortgage rates, on average, compared to 2018," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.

"Ipsos surveys consistently find housing to be top of mind for Canadians. In the fourth quarter of 2018, housing was ranked as the third most important issue Canada-wide and second most important issue in Ontario. This suggests that housing policy should also be top of mind for both the relatively new provincial government in Ontario and federal party leaders who have an election on the near horizon," said Sean Simpson, Vice President at Ipsos.

TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price by Home Type January 1 - 31, 2019

Source: Treb