GTA REALTORS® Release November 2023 Stats

High borrowing costs and uncertain economic conditions continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in November 2023. Sales were down on a year-over-year basis, while listings were up from last year’s trough in supply. With more choice in the market, selling prices remained basically flat year-over-year.

“Inflation and elevated borrowing costs have taken their toll on affordability. This has been no more apparent than in the interest rate-sensitive housing market. However, it does appear relief is on the horizon. Bond yields, which underpin fixed rate mortgages have been trending lower and an increasing number of forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Lower rates will help alleviate affordability issues for existing homeowners and those looking to enter the market,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 4,236 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2023 – a six per cent decline compared to November 2022. Over the same period, the number of new listings was up by 16.5 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales edged up compared to October 2023, while new listings were down by 5.5 per cent.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark and the average selling price, at $1,082,179, in November 2023 were basically flat in comparison to November 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down by 1.7 per cent. The average selling price was down 2.2 per cent month-overmonth.

“Home prices have adjusted from their peak in response to higher borrowing costs. This has provided some relief for buyers, from an affordability perspective. As mortgage rates trend lower next year and the population continues to grow at a record pace, expect demand to increase relative to supply. This will eventually lead to renewed growth in home prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Houses and condos are meant to be homes, first and foremost. We know the demand for homes, both rental and ownership, will grow for years to come. We have seen some productive policy decisions recently that should help with housing affordability, including allowing existing insured mortgage holders to switch lenders without the stress test. Additionally, in the interest of household and economic stability, we continue to call on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to apply the same approach to uninsured mortgages. It also goes without saying that further policy work is required to bring more supply online,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

TRREB: Higher Borrowing Costs See Buyers Remain on Hold

TORONTO, ONTARIO, November 2, 2023 – Lack of affordability and uncertainty remained issues for many would-be home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in October 2023. As a result, sales edged lower compared to last year. However, selling prices remained higher than last year’s levels.

“Record population growth and a relatively resilient GTA economy have kept the overall demand for housing strong. However, more of that demand has been pointed at the rental market, as high borrowing costs and uncertainty on the direction of interest rates has seen many would-be home buyers remain on the sidelines in the short term. When mortgage rates start trending lower, home sales will pick up quickly,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

REALTORS® reported 4,646 GTA home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in October 2023 – down 5.8 per cent compared to October 2022. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, sales were also down in comparison to September. 

New listings in October 2023 were up noticeably compared to the 12-year low reported in October 2022, but up more modestly compared to the 10-year average for October. New listings, on a seasonally adjusted basis, edged slightly lower month-over-month compared to September 2023. 

The October 2023 MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark and the average selling price were both up on year-over-year basis, by 1.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark edged lower compared to September 2023 while the average selling price remained at a similar level. Both the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark and average price remained above the cyclical lows experienced at the beginning of 2023.

“Competition between buyers remained strong enough to keep the average selling price above last year’s level in October and above the cyclical lows experienced in the first quarter of this year. The Bank of Canada also noted this resilience in its October statement. However, home prices remain well below their record peak reached at the beginning of 2022, so lower home prices have mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs to a certain degree,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“In the current environment of extremely high borrowing costs, it is disappointing to see that there has been no relief for uninsured mortgage holders reaching the end of their current term. If these borrowers want to shop around for a more competitive rate, they are still forced to unrealistically qualify at rates approaching eight per cent. Following their most recent round of consultations, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions should have eliminated this qualification rule for those renewing their mortgages with a different institution,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

TRREB: HIGH INTEREST RATES IMPACTING THE MARKET, BUT POPULATION GROWTH WILL SOON SPUR DEMAND September Report

TORONTO, ONTARIO, October 4, 2023 – The impact of high borrowing costs, high inflation, uncertainty surrounding future Bank of Canada decisions, and slower economic growth continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in September. However, despite the market being better-supplied with listings, the average selling price was up year-over-year.  

“The short and medium-term outlooks for the GTA housing market are very different. In the short term, the consensus view is that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024, after which they will start to trend lower. This suggests that we should start to see a marked uptick in demand for ownership housing in the second half of next year, as lower rates and record population growth spur an increase in buyers,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.  

REALTORS® reported 4,642 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2023 – down 7.1 per cent compared to September 2022. The year-over-year dip in sales was more pronounced for ground-oriented homes, particularly semi-detached houses and townhouses. On a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were also down slightly.  New listings were up strongly on a year-over-year basis from the extremely low level in September 2022. The number of listings also trended upward on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis.  The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by three per cent over the same time period. On a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis, both the average selling price and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark edged lower by less than one per cent.  

“GTA home selling prices remain above the trough experienced early in the first quarter of 2023. However, we did experience a more balanced market in the summer and early fall, with listings increasing noticeably relative to sales. This suggests that some buyers may benefit from more negotiating power, at least in the short term. This could help offset the impact of high borrowing costs,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.  

“TRREB’s annual consumer polling has shown that half of intending home buyers in Toronto will be first-time buyers in any given year. The average price of a condo apartment in Toronto is over $700,000. Yet, the first-time buyer exemption threshold for the City’s upfront land transfer tax has remained at $400,000 for a decade-and-a-half. With this in mind, TRREB applauds Toronto City Council for asking City staff to provide a report on a more appropriate exemption level moving forward,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. He further stressed that “many housing and taxation policies are currently set in opposition and we need all levels of government to align policies and work together to solve this housing crisis.” 

Read the full report here

TRREB: HIGHER BORROWING COSTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT HOUSING MARKET IN AUGUST

TORONTO, ONTARIO, September 6, 2023 – Higher borrowing costs, continued uncertainty about the economy and Bank of Canada decision making, and the constrained supply of listings resulted in fewer home sales in August 2023 compared to August 2022. The average selling price remained virtually unchanged over the same period. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales and average price edged lower.  

“Looking forward, we know there will be solid demand for housing – both ownership and rental – in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe. Record immigration levels alone will assure this. In the short term, we will likely continue to see some volatility in terms of sales and home prices, as buyers and sellers wait for more certainty on the direction of borrowing costs and the overall economy,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,294 sales in August 2023 – down by 5.2 per cent compared to August 2022. New listings were up by 16.2 per cent year-over-over, providing some relief on the supply front, but year-to-date listings are still down substantially compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted sales were down slightly by one per cent month-over-month compared to July 2023, while new listings were up slightly by 1.3 per cent compared to July.  

“More balanced market conditions this summer compared to the tighter spring market resulted in selling prices hovering at last year’s levels and dipping slightly compared to July. As interest rates continued to increase in May, after a pause in the winter and early spring, many buyers have had to adjust their offers in order to qualify for higher monthly payments. Not all sellers have chosen to take lower than expected selling prices, resulting in fewer sales,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.  

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark for August 2023 was up by 2.5 per cent year-overyear. The average selling price was also up, but by less than one per cent to $1,082,496 over the same timeframe. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was virtually unchanged and the average price edged lower by 1.6 per cent.  

“While higher interest rates have certainly impacted affordability, the prospect of higher taxes will also hit households’ balance sheets, especially younger buyers with limited savings. With the City of Toronto moving to raise the municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) rate on properties over $3 million as a revenue tool, it must also consider helping first-time home buyers struggling to enter the market by adjusting their tax rebate threshold to reflect today’s higher home prices,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.  

“All three levels of government need to be focused on the key issue impacting affordability in the GTA: lack of supply. Right now, there continues to be a policy mismatch between population growth through immigration and temporary migration and bringing online enough housing to accommodate this population growth. If we can’t house newcomers, they will look elsewhere, and Canada and the GTA will lose its competitive edge on the global stage,” continued DiMichele. 

GTA REALTORS® Release July 2023 Stats

TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 3, 2023 – Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales, new listings and home prices were up in July 2023 in comparison to July 2022. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the market experienced more balance in July compared to June, with sales trending lower while new listings were up. 

“Home sales continued to be above last year’s levels in July, which suggests that many households have adjusted to higher borrowing costs. With that being said, it does appear that the sales momentum that we experienced earlier in the spring has stalled somewhat since the Bank of Canada restarted its rate tightening cycle in June. Compounding the impact of higher rates has been the persistent lack of listings for people to purchase compared to previous years,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron. 

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,250 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2023, representing a 7.8 per cent increase compared to July 2022. Over the same period, new listings were also up, but by a greater annual rate of 11.5 per cent. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 1.3 per cent yearover-year. The average selling price was also up by 4.2 per cent to $1,118,374 over the same timeframe. 

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the number of sales trended lower for the second straight month, whereas new listings trended upward. The seasonally adjusted average selling price edged lower while the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark edged higher. 

“Uncertainty surrounding the direction of borrowing costs, jobs and the overall economy has impacted home sales over the last two months. Over the long term, the demand for ownership housing will remain strong on the back of record population growth. However, many homebuyers will continue to be on the sidelines in the short term until the direction of monetary policy and the economy becomes clearer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

“We continue to suffer from a misalignment in public policy as it relates to housing. The federal government is targeting record levels of immigration for the foreseeable future, but we have seen very little tangible progress in creating more ownership and rental housing to accommodate this growth. Population growth is imperative for economic development; however, this growth will be unsustainable if people can’t find an affordable place to live. All three levels of government need to be on the same page to fix this problem,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Lack of Listings Led to Tighter GTA Market Conditions in June

 TRREB Urges Governments to Accelerate Action on Housing Supply   

TORONTO, ONTARIO, July 6, 2023 – Home sales and the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in June 2023 remained above last year’s levels. Seasonally adjusted sales dipped on a month-over-month basis. The seasonally adjusted average selling price and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark were up compared to the previous month.

“The demand for ownership housing is stronger than last year, despite higher borrowing costs. With this said, home sales were hampered last month by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s outlook on inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, a persistent lack of inventory likely sidelined some willing buyers because they couldn't find a home meeting their needs. Simply put, you can't buy what is not available,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron. 

GTA REALTORS® reported 7,481 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2023 – up 16.5 per cent compared to June 2022. The number of listings was down by three per cent over the same period.

The year-over-year increase in sales coupled with the decrease in new listings mean market conditions were tighter this past June relative to the same period last year. The average selling price was up by 3.2 per cent to $1,182,120. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was still down by 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis – the lowest annual rate of decline in 2023. On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted average price and MLS® HPI Composite benchmark were up.   

“A resilient economy, tight labour market, and record population growth kept home sales well above last year’s lows. Looking forward, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this month and its guidance on inflation and borrowing costs for the remainder of 2023 will help us understand how much sales and price will recover beyond current levels,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.   

“GTA municipalities continue to lag in bringing new housing online at a pace sufficient to make up for the current deficit and keep up with record population growth. Leaders at all levels of government, including the new mayor-elect of Toronto, have committed to rectifying the housing supply crisis. We need to see these commitments coming to fruition immediately, or we will continue to fall further behind each month,” stressed TRREB CEO John DiMichele.  

“In addition to the impact of the listing shortage, housing affordability is also hampered on an ongoing basis by taxation and fees associated with home sales and construction as well as the general level of taxation impacting households today. Going forward, we need to look at all of the factors influencing the household balance sheet and people’s ability to house themselves,” continued DiMichele. 

Full report Here

STRENGTHENING DEMAND AND LACK OF HOUSING SUPPLY PUSHES UP PRICES IN THE GTA

TORONTO, ONTARIO, June 2, 2023 – The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to improve from a sales perspective in May 2023. Unfortunately, the supply of homes for sale did not keep up with the demand for ownership housing. Sales as a share of new listings were up dramatically compared to a year ago. This is a clear signal that competition between buyers increased substantially compared to last year, resulting in the average selling price reaching almost $1.2 million last month.   

“Despite the fact that we have seen positive policy direction over the last couple of years, governments have been failing on the housing supply front for some time. Recent polling from Ipsos found that the City of Toronto residents gave Council a failing grade on housing affordability and pointed to lack of supply as the major issue. This issue is not unique to Toronto. It persists throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe. If we don't quickly see housing supply catch up to population growth, the economic development of our region will be hampered as people and businesses look elsewhere to live and invest,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.   

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,012 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in May 2023 – a 24.7 per cent increase compared to May 2022. Conversely, new listings were down by 18.7 per cent over the same period. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 5.2 per cent compared to April 2023.  

“The demand for ownership housing has picked up markedly in recent months. Many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration has also supported increased home sales. The supply of listings hasn't kept up with sales, so we have seen upward pressure on selling prices during the spring,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.  

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark was down by 6.9 per cent year-over-year in May 2023, but up by 3.2 per cent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis compared to April 2023. The average selling price, at $1,196,101, represented a small 1.2 per cent decline relative to May 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average selling price was up by 3.5 per cent compared to April 2023.  

“The high cost of housing, brought about by short supply and high borrowing costs, is part of the broader increases in the cost of living. Municipalities, including the City of Toronto, need to be mindful of this when considering their revenue generation options. TRREB believes households will have little patience for higher taxes, including unreasonable property tax hikes and increases to prohibitive upfront land transfer taxes,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.  

Source : TRREB

GTA HOME SALES AND LISTINGS DROP IN FEBRUARY "Uptick in Homebuying Expected Later This Year"

TORONTO, ONTARIO, MARCH 3, 2023 – February sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were down substantially from the pre-rate hike levels of early 2022. However, the number of new listings also dropped substantially year-over-year. The result was that the average selling price and MLS® HPI continued to level off after trending lower through the spring and summer of last year. 

“It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the impact of higher borrowing costs. Many homebuyers have also decided to purchase a lower-priced home to help offset higher borrowing costs. The share of home purchases below one million dollars is up substantially compared to this time last year,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 4,783 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2023 – down 47 per cent compared to February 2022, the last full month before the onset of interest rate hikes. The number of new listings entered into the system was down by a similar annual rate of 40.9 per cent to 8,367.  

“New listings continued to drop year-over-year in the GTA. Recently released Ipsos polling suggests buying intentions have picked up for 2023. This increased demand will run up against a constrained supply of listings and lead to increased competition between buyers. This will eventually lead to renewed price growth in many segments of the market, especially those catering to first-time buyers facing increased rental costs,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.  

The average selling price for February 2023 was $1,095,617 – down 17.9 per cent compared to February 2022. Some of this decline is attributable to the fact that the share of sales below $1,000,000 was 57 per cent in February 2023 versus only 38 per cent a year earlier. On a monthly basis, the average price followed the regular seasonal trend, increasing relative to January 2023. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down year-over-year by a similar annual rate of 17.7 per cent, but was also up on a monthly basis.  

“As we move toward a June mayoral by-election in Toronto, housing supply will once again be front and centre in the policy debate. New and innovative solutions, including the City of Toronto’s initiative to allow duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in all neighbourhoods citywide, need to come to fruition if we are to achieve an adequate and diverse housing supply that will support record population growth in the years to come,” said TRREB Chief Executive Officer John DiMichele

GTA REALTORS Release January 2023 Stats

TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 3, 2023 – As we moved from 2022 into 2023, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market unfolded as expected. The number of January sales and the overall average selling price were similar to December 2022. On a year-over-year basis, both sales and prices were down markedly, continuing to highlight the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability over the last year. 

“Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron. 

GTA REALTORS® reported 3,100 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2023 – in line with the December 2022 result of 3,110, but down 44.6 per cent from January 2022. The average selling price for January 2023 at $1,038,668 was slightly lower than the December 2022 result and down by 16.4 per cent compared to the January 2022 average price reported before the onset of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was in line with the December result, but down by 14.2 per cent compared to January 2022.

“Home prices declined over the past year as homebuyers sought to mitigate the impact of substantially higher borrowing costs. While short-term borrowing costs increased again in January, negotiated medium-term mortgage rates, like the five-year fixed rate, have actually started to trend lower compared to the end of last year. The expectation is that this trend will continue, further helping with affordability as we move through 2023,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

“All three levels of government have announced policies to enhance housing affordability over the long term, including many initiatives focussed on increasing housing supply in the ownership and rental markets. Most recently, we were encouraged to see Toronto City Council support the Mayor’s 2023 Housing Action Plan as part of the City’s overall $2 billion commitment to housing initiatives,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

TRREB will release its annual Market Outlook and Year in Review report on Friday, February 10, 2023.

GTA REALTORS® Release December 2022 Stats

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

"Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) mortgage stress test or other mortgage lending guidelines including amortization periods, home selling prices are adjusted downward to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates. However, home prices started leveling off in the late summer, suggesting the aggressive early market adjustment may be coming to an end," said new Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB9s MLS® System in 2022 3 down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 3 down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.

"While home sales and prices dominated the headlines in 2022, the supply of new listings continued to be an issue as well. The number of homes listed for sale in 2022 was down in comparison to 2021. This helps explain why selling prices have found some support in recent months. Lack of supply has also impacted the rental market. As renting has become more popular in this higher interest rate environment, tighter rental market conditions have translated into double-digit average rent increases," said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The average selling price for 2022 was $1,189,850 3 up 8.6 per cent compared to $1,095,333 in 2021. This growth was based on a strong start to the year, in terms of year-over-year price growth. The pace of growth moderated from the spring of 2022 onwards.

Source: TRREB