Video: Market Watch January 2020 Numbers

Condo gains push Canadian housing starts to a 4-month high

Canadian builders began 2020 with a strong rebound in housing starts that is good news for the nation’s increasingly tight real estate markets.

Work began on an annualized 213,224 units in January, up 8.8 per cent from a revised 195,892 in the prior month, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday in a statement. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had anticipated starts would be 205,000.

It’s the highest level of new construction in four months, after a slowdown at the end of 2019, and suggests builders may be responding to the recovery in demand in some of the nation’s largest housing markets. At the same time demand is increasing, a shrinking supply of available homes is driving up prices in several cities.

“With recent data pointing to further tightening in demand-supply conditions in many resale markets, a solid pace of home building to start the year will be welcomed,” Josh Nye, a senior economist at RBC Economics, said in a note to investors.

In a separate report Monday, Statistics Canada said building permits rose 7.4 per cent in December, more than double the 2.8 per cent median forecast from economists. The increase is consistent with the housing starts data for January, and included a 47 per cent surge in Toronto intentions, the most 2014.

A combination of steady population growth, low unemployment and cheap borrowing costs have brought buyers back into markets that had been lackluster for much of 2018 and early 2019. Combined with shrinking supply, the rising number of buyers has driven bids for homes higher in places like Toronto, where benchmark prices are up 9 per cent over the past year.

Starts in Toronto were up 51 per cent from December, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CMHC said. Montreal, another market that has been doing well, saw starts rise 53 per cent.

Overall, Canada recorded a 13.6 per cent jump in multiple urban starts during the month, while single-detached starts fell 0.9 per cent.

Source: Bloomberg News

GTA REALTORS® Release January 2020 Stats

TRREB President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,581 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.

“We started 2020 where 2019 left off, with very strong growth in the number of sales up against a continued dip in the number of new and available listings. Tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in much stronger growth in average selling prices. Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said Mr. Collins.

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 8.7 per cent compared to January 2019 – the highest annual rate of growth for the Benchmark since October 2017. The condominium apartment market segment continued to lead the way in terms of MLS HPI® price growth, but all home types experienced price growth above seven per cent when considering the TRREB market area as a whole. The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached and condominium apartment segments in the City of Toronto.

“A key difference in the price growth story in January 2020 compared to January 2019 was in the low-rise market segments, particularly with regard to detached houses. A year seems to have made a big difference. It is clear that many buyers who were on the sidelines due to the OSFI stress test are moving back into the market, driving very strong year-over-year sales growth in the detached segment. Strong sales up against a constrained supply continues to result in an accelerating rate of price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.

Source: TRREB

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TREB RELEASES CONDO MARKET FIGURES AS REPORTED BY GTA REALTORS®

TORONTO, ONTARIO, January 15, 2020 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,367 condominium apartment sales through TREB’s MLS® System in the fourth quarter of 2019. This result was up by 3.8 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.

New condominium apartment listings were down substantially by 11.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis when compared to Q4 2018. This suggests that condo market conditions tightened further over the past year.

 “The condominium apartment market segment continued to perform well in 2019, with strong growth in sales and average price. Condominium apartments provide a relatively affordable entry point into the home ownership market for first-time buyers, who account for a substantial portion of demand each year,” said Mr. Collins.

The average price of a condominium apartment increased by 10.4 per cent from $558,733 in Q4 2018 to $616,591 in Q4 2019. Year-over-year price growth in the City of Toronto, which accounted for 71 per cent of transactions, was similar to the GTA as a whole, at 10.3 per cent, resulting in an average price of $660,379.

“Tighter market conditions in the GTA condo market translated into an increased competition between buyers and an accelerated pace of price growth. TREB continues to urge policy makers to develop strategies to bring more ownership and rental supply online, so that balanced market conditions and a moderate pace of price growth can be sustained over the long term,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

 Condominium Apartment Market Summary - 4th Quarter 2019 

Source: TREB

GTA REALTORS® Release December and Annual 2019 Stats

January 7, 2020 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins reported that December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB's MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6 per cent compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.

"We certainly saw a recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year. As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year," said Mr. Collins.

While sales were up in 2019, the number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System was down by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. For the past decade, annual new listings have been largely in a holding pattern between 150,000 and 160,000, despite the upward trend in home prices over the same period.

"Over the last ten years, TREB has been drawing attention to the housing supply issue in the GTA. Increasingly, policy makers, research groups of varying scope and other interested parties have acknowledged that the lack of a diverse supply of ownership and rental housing continues to hamper housing affordability in the GTA. Taking 2019 as an example, we experienced a strong sales increase up against a decline in supply. Tighter market conditions translated into accelerating price growth. Expect further acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 7.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December 2019. From June 2019 onward, the annual growth rate in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark accelerated. The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12 per cent year-over-year. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by four per cent compared to $787,856 in 2018.


Source: Treb


Extra : Market Year in Review and Outlook Report 2019

GTA REALTORS® Release November 2019 Stats

December 4, 2019 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,090 sales through TREB's MLS® System in November 2019 – a 14.2 percent increase compared to November 2018. On a GTA-wide basis, sales were up year-over-year for all major market segments. Annual sales growth in ground-oriented home types, including detached houses, led the way.

New listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in November and the active listings count at the end of the month went in the opposite direction compared to last year, with new listings down 17.9 percent year-over-year and active listings down 27.2 percent.

"An increasing number of home buyers impacted by demand-side policies over the past three years, including the 2017 Ontario Fair Housing Plan and the OSFI mortgage stress test, have moved back into the market for ownership housing. Based on affordability and stricter mortgage qualification standards, many buyers may have likely adjusted their preferences, changing the type and/or location of home they ultimately chose to purchase," said Mr. Collins.

As market conditions continued to tighten in November 2019, with increased sales up against an increasingly constrained supply of listings, the annual rate of price growth continued to accelerate. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark increased by 6.8 percent year-over-year. The average selling price increased by 7.1 percent year-over-year to $843,637. Both the MLS® HPI and the average selling price for the TREB market area as a whole experienced the strongest annual rates of price growth for the year in November.

"Strong population growth in the GTA coupled with declining negotiated mortgage rates resulted in sales accounting for a greater share of listings in November and throughout the second half of 2019. Increased competition between buyers has resulted in an acceleration in price growth. Expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.

Source: Treb

GTA REALTORS® Release October 2019 Stats

November 5, 2019 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,491 residential sales through TREB's MLS® System in October 2019. This result represented a 14 per cent increase compared to 7,448 sales reported in October 2018. GTA-wide, sales were up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types.

The trend of annual growth in sales versus annual decline in new listings continued in October 2019, with new listings down by 9.6 per cent compared to October 2018. The resulting tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in positive annual rates of price growth across all major market segments, from a GTA-wide perspective.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 5.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October 2019 – the strongest annual rate of growth since December 2017. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 5.5 per cent to $852,142, compared to $807,538 in October 2018.

"As market conditions in the GTA have steadily tightened throughout 2019, we have seen an acceleration in the annual rate of price growth. While the current pace of price growth remains moderate, we will likely see stronger price growth moving forward if sales growth continues to outpace listings growth, leading to more competition between home buyers," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.